The Jed ReportÂ crunches the numbers and shows why no matter how you crunch them, the chances of Hillary Clinton winning the nomination are very very very very (and did I mention very) small.Â Â Â
First the pledged vote: For her to stay withinÂ 100 delegate votes behind Obama, withÂ Florida and Michigan in the mix would still require her to win 53% of all remaining pledged delegates.Â Even in Ohio, an ideal state for her, she barely reached it.Â Â This means a more realistic scenario is in number of delegates she is behind Obama is between 120 and 140 (possibly more, but the focus here is looking at her best case realistic scenarios).
According to Jed’s figurings, if Clinton ends up trailing by 50, she would need 53% ofÂ the remaining unpledged superdelgates.Â Â Â Â If Clinton ends up trailing by 100, she would need 60%.
Â Â If Clinton ends up trailing by 150, she would need 67%!Â So we are looking at her needing – most likely- between 62% and 67% of all the remaining Superdelegates to vote for her.
Here is TheJedReport’s big finish:
Once again, I’ve shown above it’s almost certain that Clinton will not get within 100 delegates, even if we include Michigan and Florida. If she could get the gap down to 50 — which would be nearly impossible — she might be able to convince the superdelegates to overturn the results of primaries and caucuses, but even that is questionable.
Certainly at a spread of 100 delegates, especially after changing the process to include Michigan and Florida, I don’t see Clinton being able to win over 60% of the super delegates, which is a significantly higher share of the superdelegates than she now enjoys.
Anything beyond that is a fantasy. Moreover, as I’ve already shown, the idea that she’ll end up within 100 pledged delegates of Obama is also likely a fantasy.
Thanks for the extensive analysis! That site will be updating these numbers as the race goes on.
Page topic: Delegate race between Obama and Hillary: Hillary Clinton can’t win becauseÂ she’ll require for aÂ majority of the remaining unpledged Superdelegates to vote for her, which won’t happen.